A Comparative Study on Enhancing Power Supply Reliability Using Petri Nets and Monte Carlo Simulation in an Algerian Oil and Gas Company

Abstract

Multiplexing power supply sources present one of the most common and efficient strategies for enhancing power supply reliability, especially for those who’s are classified as critical users due to their need of power for (24/7), different types of alternative sources could be adopted by this kind of users which all aim to enhance the power supply reliability. However, the efficiency of the alternative sources remains an issue that has to be studied due to certain constraints that could hinder the backup source to full fill its function. This paper studies a case study of a critical user (petroleum plant in southern Algeria) which relies only on one overhead line as a source of power, where the paper studied three different strategies of redundancy each one with its own properties. The paper affirms that the efficiency of the back system and the improvement of the overall reliability depend not only of installing any back up system, but also relies on studying different criteria such as: maintenance team availability, common cause failures CCF and delay time for starting maintenance operations. Based on IEEE STD 493-2007 (the “Gold Book”) data and its recommended methods, Petri nets were combined with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to achieve highly accurate results in terms of availability, enabling a robust assessment of the case study’s reliability. The findings show that enhancing power supply reliability requires a careful selection of the backup system through a strategy that accounts for all potential threats to the grid. Among the three proposed solutions for the petroleum plant, only one configuration achieved an availability of 93%. Furthermore, the paper has also discussed the expected financial losses and environmental impacts due to power outage of the three proposed strategies based on the obtained results of the simulation, which could give stakeholder a valuable insight and a solid confidence to take the relevant decision in terms of any investment.